Nylon Calculus posted their updated Player Consistency Stats and I wanted to take a look at some of the more inconsistent teams and what this stat can tell us about those inconsistencies. So I chose to start with the Hornets, because why not kick a lame mule? With the rumors swirling that they might already be trying to move Lance Stephenson after signing him and suffering from the loss of Michael Carter-Williams, but as the chart will hopefully illuminate that there isn’t just one problem with the Hornets.
A quick primer on the Variance definition:
Variance: By how much a player is likely to perform above or below his average on any given game. Represented by a value in which about 68% of games will be within a range of the Average +/- Variance. Higher variance = lower consistency. Highly dependent on volume of scoring. About 75% of players fall between a variance of 2.1 and 6.8, so anyone outside of that range can be considered to exceptionally consistent or exceptionally inconsistent. The average is 4.8.Consistency: How likely a player is to perform outside of the typical “range” set by his variance. Higher consistency score means the player is more likely to play within the range set by his variance. Lower means their performance is more erratic. Far less dependent on volume, but the extreme highs and lows are less dramatic. About 75% of players fall between a consistency of 1.1 and 3.6, so anyone outside of that range can be considered exceptionally consistent or exceptionally inconsistent. The average is 2.3.
Higher variance equaling lower consistency is one key to access this info. The highest consistencies on the team belong to Marvin Williams and Kemba Walker and then a swift dip into quality until we hit heavy number guys like Al Jefferson and Gerald Henderson. Marvin Williams’s consistency has only lead to 6.3ppgs and has only gotten to the free throw line TWICE. Not twice a game, but twice the entire season. He didn’t get his first free throw attempt until November 24th.
Al Jefferson has the highest ppg average for the Hornets, but a look at his game log has shown 9 games where he has scored 20 points or less. Not a great look for a team that runs left side isolation plays for Jefferson on a consistent half court set. He will still get those post points, but the consistency at 2.39 is way to on the bubble for being called to steer the offense.
Kemba Walker came out the gate with 26 points against the Milwaukee Bucks, but since then has not scored more than 20 points in a game all season. And in three games he scored in double figures. And these are the numbers of your second most consistent players.
I don’t watch every Hornets game, but I try and keep up with some bloggers covering them and it doesn’t appear to be the fault of Steve Clifford. The Hornets floor spacing is abysmal and the energy can look like the floor is covered in maple syrup. So is it still Lance’s fault?
The 1.25 consistency is the worst on the team and he is getting the second most minutes on the squad. In his first 6 games for the Hornets, his ppgs were all over the place: 7,2,14,2,8, & 17. He has scored in single digits 9 times with only two of those games resulting from wins.
With the years in Indiana he was known for being a volatile yet sparky first-off-the-bench player. Primed for a starting spot, his head is now out for sale but with numbers like that, who would be buying? After the implosion with the Pacers and the Hornets regressing that the Orlando Magic sits over them in the Southeast Division, what exactly do you do?